I would suppose that depends on what NATO’s response is. They could swiftly disable Russia’s conventional forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea without creating an existential threat to Moscow, which is what I expect it would take to provoke nuclear warfare.
To disable Russian forces in ukraine youd have (my opinion, truth is probably more complicated and I’m definitely not an expert) probably to invade Russia and encircle the Russian forces. You could also drive the Russian forces through ukraine which would probably be a lot more costly when it comes to losses. Either one might make china compelled to aid Russia in some form or anotehr which wouldn’t be great
I would suppose that depends on what NATO’s response is. They could swiftly disable Russia’s conventional forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea without creating an existential threat to Moscow, which is what I expect it would take to provoke nuclear warfare.
To disable Russian forces in ukraine youd have (my opinion, truth is probably more complicated and I’m definitely not an expert) probably to invade Russia and encircle the Russian forces. You could also drive the Russian forces through ukraine which would probably be a lot more costly when it comes to losses. Either one might make china compelled to aid Russia in some form or anotehr which wouldn’t be great