Over or just postponed?
I don’t think anything is going to happen at this point. If anything, this demonstrated that pretty much everyone is behind the government.
How do you figure that? Wagner faced little to no resistance all the way up, they even had local police joining their convoy. Then, it took negotiations with Belarus to get them to stop. How does that show support for Putin’s government?
To me, it sounds like Wagner didn’t really want to shed Russian blood, they simply wanted guarantees of support in the form of supplies and ammunition. They apparently got what they wanted from their talks with the Belarusian President. However, that doesn’t change the fact that many people outside of Moscow were willing to either stand by and let pass or stand with Wagner.
Literally everyone of any importance in Russia basically told the Wagnerites to listen to Putin and stand down. Even people in the street went up to them and asked them to come to their senses. The fact that this didn’t get violent is a testament to both the maturity of the Russian society in general, and the confidence of the Russian government in being in complete control as well as their ability to remain calm and not react emotionally or rashly in a crisis.
This was literally the best possible outcome. It would have only played into the hands of Russia’s enemies for anyone to try and stop the Wagnerites using force. That would have escalated into a total shitshow and would have cost Russia valuable equipment and manpower. It was vital for everyone to remain calm and do nothing that could escalate into real violence. The fry cook got nothing except for being allowed to go into exile and not be imprisoned or killed…for now.
The unity that this little temper tantrum showed exists in Russia really pours cold water on any hopes the West may have had for a real coup. The West will of course try to salvage whatever they can out of it, they will try to twist the narrative to claim that this supposedly shows that Putin is weak because he didn’t crush the mutineers with force, because he showed leniency and restraint. But that little PR win will be short lived and is ultimately a poor consolation prize considering this basically confirmed that whatever hopes they may have had for their strategy of drawing out the war until just maybe some black swan event happens in Russia that will lead to the collapse of the war effort are essentially dead.
This was their best chance of trying to precipitate an internal fracture by exploiting a crisis created by what can only be described as the mental breakdown of a degenerate lowlife with an overinflated ego, all while Ukie psyops were working overtime playing up grievances and disseminating fakes inflating the appearance of serious internal conflicts, and they failed. It turned out that the overwhelming majority of Russians - including all government and military power structures, and even the majority of Wagner - didn’t take the bait and the whole gambit fizzled out.
The fact that the Kremlin prevailed so quickly and decisively, and most importantly without loss of life, and minimal property damage and disruption to civilian life, has just massively increased the stability of the state. Another beneficial side effect is that a number of western assets will also have been burned and many fifth columnists have exposed themselves. The FSB will be busy for the next few weeks looking very closely into anyone who was a bit too enthusiastic about supporting the mutiny. There will be purges that much is sure.
And finally, this whole episode will lead to the general enthusiasm for the concept of PMCs being somewhat lessened which is always a good thing. Mercenaries are yet again proven to be unreliable scum. Russia will almost certainly incorporate them much more tightly and with much greater oversight and control into the official armed forces now to prevent other similar episodes occurring in the future, which is good for discipline and general morale.
The Kremlin didn’t prevail though, Prigozhin backed down only after speaking to Lukashenko. And we don’t know the terms that this was ended under, but it would be a safe assumption that it would involve less integration of PMC’s (or at least Wagner) than what was already happening, as this was one of the main reasons they started their march north.
Do you seriously believe that Lukashenko is just some random third party here? This was a way to provide a way out for Prigozhin and diffuse the situation.
I’m certainly not saying Lukashenko isn’t in allegiance with the Kremlin, however it’s true to say that the Kremlin didn’t negotiate down the coup. Lukashenko did.
Also it’s most likely these terms were somewhat favourable to Wagner and don’t involve its complete integration into Russia’s military and directly under MoD control.
I’m really not sure what point you’re trying to make here to be honest. Kremlin found a way to resolve the situation without bloodshed, and where Prigozhin was removed from wagner while preserving wagner as an effective organization. Wagner is in fact now signing contracts with the MoD, so yes it is directly under the control of the MoD going forward. Basically, Russia managed to resolve the situation in the best way possible.
I just want to hear more about the terms of tue agreement
Yeah, I’m curious as well, I’m sure we’ll find out more in the coming weeks.
Okay, but seriously, someone needs to do something about Prigozhin. The guy has been out of control pretty much since February – anyone remember that disrespectful stunt with the bodies of dead servicemen?
The fact that this was allow to go as far as it did is definitely an embarrassment for Russia. Prigozhin should’ve been removed from Wagner a long time ago.
Part of me would love for this just to have all been a ploy to fuck with the west. lol.
It would be absolutely hilarious, but Prigozhin going off the deep end is a much more likely explanation.
It’s already over in the western media they were saying they were at the gates of Moscow/s
I love how they were salivating that there would be an actual coup
I wonder how many resources the US wasted rallying it’s military to get ready to ‘intervene’ to protect the righteous coup-ers. Or do you think they’re more level-headed than that in the high command?
US military command does appear to be more sober based on the articles they put out, but I’m sure US did burn some assets in Russia during this whole affair. I think the interesting outcome here was that pretty much all of the military and political class showed unity, so it’s pretty clear there isn’t much coup potential in Russia right now and that the political system is pretty stable.
and western media is now reporting it, so safe to say the whole thing is over https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/06/24/world/russia-ukraine-news
the linked tweet is some scary rhetoric too.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn’t matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe’s eastern flank depends only on our defense.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we’re enhancing our common defense. Real defense.
We went from “Europe will protect Ukraine” to “Ukraine will protect Europe” really quick didn’t we? Are Ukrainians now aware that they’re just dying to maintain an union they’re not part of? Can’t the all-mighty Europeans protect themselves anymore?
Sounds awfully similar to polish messianism. Costed us millions of lives too.
The way libs just immediately became pro-Wagner is nuts
One of the core values of being a liberal is that you stand for absolutely nothing.
not so. they’re pro-anything that impedes russia, which includes infighting. if the us had another civil war, many of us would certainly support it.
If you think of it, it’s pretty impressive how liberals always manage, without even a sliver of understanding, recognize which side is objectively reactionary and follow it.
LMAO it’s like an instinct
Liberals devastated they can’t cheer for the man with swastika tattoos now
It hasn’t been a full day and this aged like milk 😂 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-civil-war-wagner-putin-coup/674517/
Of course its Anne Applebaum, that fucking demon
truly
Aaaand that’s why I don’t comment on these things as they break. I shit you not, some people over here were “expecting”(as if they had the info for a half decent analysis) a civil war…
Exactly, I was pretty sure this would turn into a nothingburger, but I was like you know I’ll wait a day in case I’m completely misreading the situation. Apparently, a whole bunch of US “journalists” didn’t have this much restraint.
I don’t think restraint was a factor at all. It’s more likely they were tripping over themselves to write about China collapsing in the next 4 days. Wait…
I bet they already had those article written and just waiting for an opportunity to publish them. 😂
W for Belarus, maybe? Have to wait and see I guess…
I’m very curious about what was “negotiated”. Allegedly Prigozhin wants the war to end, right?
Yeah, I’m curious as well.